Rivian is planning one of the fastest launches of a new all-electric car in the US with its upcoming R2 SUV, according to company statements and a TechCrunch analysis of historical sales data.
If Rivian is successful, it would prove a strong start for a product that founder and CEO RJ Scaringe has he said is “perhaps the most important thing we’ve launched to date.”
He can’t afford not to. Rivian’s future – and chances of profitability – depend on the success of R2. If it struggles to increase production and sales of the R2, shareholders could walk away. At the very least, it will raise questions about the company’s strategy burning billions now to prepare for mass market.
Rivian told investors this last month expects to sell between R20,000 and R25,000 this year, with the first SUVs likely to head to customers in June once production begins. Even if the Rivian hits the low end of that goal, its sales percentage will outstrip every comparable electric at or below $60,000, except for the Tesla Model Y.
Launched in March 2020, the Model Y took only about four months to surpass 20,000 vehicles sold. Rivian aims to do so in about six months, or about the same time it took the Honda Prologue to reach that sales milestone when it debuted in 2024.
The next fastest EV to reach 20,000 US sales was the Chevy Equinox EV, which did so in about eight months after it hit the market in 2024. Ford’s Mustang Mach-E took a similar amount of time after launching in 2021, while Korean EVs like the Hyundai Kia 5 and 11, EV 6 months respectively.
Cars that had a rough run, like Tesla’s Model 3 (the origin of Elon Musk’s famous “production hell”) or the Chevy Blazer EV (which suffered a major sales halt and recall) took that long or longer.
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Rivian is launching the R2 into a very different market. Almost all of those other models benefited from the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles, which was eliminated by Congress and President Trump in September of last year. Major automakers are scaling back or canceling plans for some electric vehicles in the face of looser emissions regulations. Trump’s chaotic tariffs have also made vehicles more expensive — including Rivian’s existing lineup.
Scaringe has described these challenges as advantages, saying the EV market is short on options, especially at the more affordable end. Rivian said the R2 SUV will start at $45,000, with Scaringe positioning the more affordable price point as critical to its mass-market success.
A lower starting price could boost the chances of the R2 launching, but neither Scaringe nor the company has said when a $45,000 version of the R2 will actually be available. Instead, the company is launching a twin-engine, higher-trim version of the SUV that will almost certainly cost more.
More prices and details will be announced at an event on March 12 in early February the company removed “Starting at $45,000” from the R2 section of its website. Rivian told TechCrunch last month that it remains “committed” to that base price despite the change. The company did not respond to emailed requests for comment on the R2’s release plans.
Despite the headwinds against EVs in the US right now, there seems to be strong demand for upcoming electric SUVs priced near or slightly above the R2, such as Volvo’s EX60BMW’s iX3 and the Mercedes-Benz GLC. However, those won’t come stateside until later this year, giving the R2 a competitive edge, according to Edmunds consumer intelligence analyst Joseph Yoon.
“[Scaringe is] Yoon said Rivian has worked hard to simplify the R2’s manufacturing process compared to its current vehicles, which will help the company reach scale more quickly.
However, some Wall Street analysts are skeptical. Last month, DA Davidson analyst Michael Shlisky lowered its price target for Rivian citing “aggressive” expectations for the company’s R2 launch.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy wrote in a note published last year that he estimated Rivian’s average transaction price for the R2 could hover around $60,000 or higher “for the next several years” while they are built in Illinois until the company gets its new Georgia plant up and running.
