We’re in a transitional moment in streaming — user growth is slowing and major players are slowing down looking to unifybut the long-promised dream of profitability is finally in sight in close distance (especially if you are Netflix).
Perfect timing, then, for the New York Times to interview many of the big names in the industry — including Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos, Amazon Prime Video chief Mike Hopkins, and IAC president Barry Diller — on what they think is next.
There seemed to be broad agreement on most of the big themes: More ads, higher prices and fewer big changes to prestige TV. All these changes are united by the shift towards profitability rather than growth at any cost. If the initial prices of many streaming services seemed unsustainably low at launch, they turned out to be — prices have steadily increased, while streamers have also introduced more affordable subscription tiers for viewers willing to watch commercials.
In fact, some executives told the Times that streamers will continue to raise prices for ad-free tiers, with the goal of pushing more customers to sign up for ad-supported subscriptions.
The growth of ad-supported streaming could also affect the kinds of movies and shows produced, as advertisers generally want to reach a mass audience — think of the heyday of ad-supported network television, with its endless doctor shows and cops, compared to the more ambitious fare on subscription-supported HBO.
That change is already underway at streaming, though executives insist they’re not giving up hope of finding the next “Sopranos” or “House of Cards.” Sarandos (who has already gone retreating from his decade-long boast that he wanted Netflix to “be HBO before HBO became us”) said Netflix can “do prestige TV at scale,” but added, “We don’t just do prestige.”
Similarly, Hopkins said that at Prime Video, “procedurals and other tried and true formats are doing well for us, but we also need big changes that will have customers saying, ‘Wow, I can’t believe that just happened,’ and have the people should be called friends.'”
Other unsurprising predictions include greater investment in live sports (“the most simple and interesting thing,” according to Warner Bros. Discovery board member John Malone), more bundling and either the shutdown or merger of some existing services. Apparently there was a consensus among executives that streamers need at least 200 million subscribers to be “big enough to compete,” as former Disney CEO Bob Chapek put it.
Some of these changes would be welcome, but they reinforce the sense that streaming — at least as envisioned by the executives currently running the business — won’t be that different from the old cable TV ecosystem. Some things will be better (on-demand viewing), some will be worse (compensation for writers, actors and other talent;), and there may be different players at the top. But in many ways, it will look like the same old TV.
