Last week’s Vision The Pro version sheds some fascinating light on Apple’s generally top-secret development process. ONE Vanity Fair interview with Tim Cook detailing — in part — how much heavy lifting it took to get the company’s first handset off the ground. Apple’s CEO gave an early iteration of the device the less-than-flattering nickname, “the monster.”
Rumored foldable versions of the iPhone have also reportedly had their share of failures. Issues around durability and the ever-present creasing are said to have caused the company to put development of the foldable iPhone on ice as the company turned to the foldable iPad. New report from The informationBut it does suggest that — after delays — Apple may be getting back into the foldable iPhone business.
The Vanity Fair piece referred to the product in the profile above, noting:
[Cook] walks past forbidden rooms where they dreamed of foldable iPhones and MacBooks with folding keyboards or transparent TVs. Where these devices, almost all of them will never leave this building, are kept in locked Pelican cases inside locked cabinets.
The intensity with which the device is described, however, condenses it into what sounds like one-off projects that failed to materialize. Apple has been known to abandon ambitious projects that don’t meet its strict standards. However, with occasional exceptions like AirPower, these devices are not publicly announced.
Image Credits: Brian Heater
As it did with space computers, Apple has apparently been thinking about the idea of foldables for some time. The root of these efforts could date back to 2018 – a year before Samsung released the Galaxy Fold, the first viable foldable smartphone. Of course, this launch was fraught with its own launch problems. As Samsung learned the hard way again, lab testing will only get you so far. TechCrunch was among the users who experienced problems with an early version of the phone.
The category has matured somewhat in the intervening 4.5 years. Foldables aren’t nearly as ubiquitous, but Samsung’s Fold and Flip devices have proven there’s demand, culminating in the company’s decision to retire the Galaxy Note and push the new flagship devices. A number of other companies are also in the game now, including Huawei, Oppo/OnePlus, Motorola (Lenovo) and Google. For my money, the Google and OnePlus models are the best on the market right now.
Durability issues have been largely addressed so far. That’s not to say that foldables can necessarily withstand the same amount of wear and tear as other flagship devices (adding moving parts to a device always complicates the math), but the days of them breaking due to elements like the elements of dirt are almost over. . Ultimately, the question here, however, is what constitutes “good enough” for Apple?
Like the Vision Pro, the original iPhone, AirPods, and the Apple Watch, the company needs to believe it’s bringing something fresh to the table before launching a new product line. Maybe that means better drop-test results. From the sound of things, it could mean the elimination of the ubiquitous folding aspect. Whatever the case, though, it looks like consumers won’t be able to get their hands on one of these things before 2026.
Image Credits: Brian Heater
IDC puts folding shipments at just over 21 million for 2023, while predicting the market will more than double to 48.1 million by 2027. That may sound like a big number, but it’s a drop in the bucket compared to 1.17 billion smartphones shipped worldwide in 2023 (the same a Down 3.2%. from the previous year).
While foldables have continued to grow and have brought some excitement back into a stagnant smartphone market, it’s hard to know what things will look like in 2026 (a sentiment that obviously applies much more broadly than foldables). There have been discussions for several years about whether Apple can “pull an iPhone” with the foldable space. And while the form factor continues to have its detractors, much speculation has eased as interest in the category has grown.
Apple is reportedly toying with different versions of a foldable iPhone, though the company seems to be favoring the clamshell model—that is, more Galaxy Flip than Galaxy Fold. Both take the category have their value. The Fold has a much larger main screen with a more common aspect ratio, but it’s heavy and bulky, even when folded. The Flip is a much more portable phone. I prefer the latter, partly due to the fact that these devices usually spend more time folded than not.
The company is reportedly eyeing an eight-inch main screen, which would be huge for a clamshell form factor. The main screen of the Galaxy Z Flip 4 is 6.7 inches, while the latest Motorola Razr is 6.9. A foldable iPhone would have to be significantly wider to achieve this without an odd aspect ratio, and at that point you start to wonder at what point “clamshell” isn’t the most accurate description of the form factor. The Information compares the inside of the prototype to an iPad Mini.
Image Credits: Cory Green/Yahoo
One nice thing about market competition is that different companies have different perceptions of the ideal footprint for such a device. One of the main things that impressed me about Google’s Pixel Fold is the balance its designers struck between the size of the screen and the device. It is one of the most foldable books, in terms of aspect ratio. Much of this comes down to personal preference, so each company must determine the dimensions they believe will appeal to the largest audience. Most companies have one or two form factors, tops, and it’s hard to imagine Apple getting away with that in the early days of a product.
The most likely scenario is that Apple releases a unique form factor positioned as the second flagship in the iPhone lineup. Like the Vision Pro, such a device would likely be cost-prohibitive, hindering adoption—though certainly not at $3,500.
Another thing worth noting is that Apple’s mere presence legitimizes a category for many. I’m not saying this is always a sensible thought, but the company has a great track record of revolutionizing existing categories. Again, look at the iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, AirPods. The jury is still very much out on the Vision Pro, leaving some to wonder if this particular brand of magic is starting to fade.
At the very least, Apple’s entry into the space would certainly move the needle on foldables. It will certainly affect the 48.1 million by 2027 predicted by IDC. For now, Samsung has to lose the race a lot, with analysts putting the hardware giant’s share between 60-70% of the market.
