There are many ways to describe what is happening to the Earth’s climate: Global warming. Climate change. Climate crisis. World curious. All try to capture in different ways the phenomena caused by our world’s weather systems gone wrong. However, despite the many options of a thesaurus entry, it is still an extremely difficult concept to make relevant.
However, researchers at MIT may finally have an answer. Instead of predicting Category 5 hurricanes or record-breaking heat days, they’ve developed a tool that lets people see how many “outdoor daysTheir range may face between now and 2100 if carbon emissions continue to rise unchecked.
The results can be alarming or comforting, depending on where you live.
For people in California the France the Germany, things don’t look so bad. The climate won’t be as welcoming in the summers, but it will become a bit calmer in the spring and fall, adding anywhere from a few days to nearly a month of outside weather compared to historical records. The United Kingdom it will be even better, gaining 40 outdoor days by the end of the century.
Not everyone will come forward, though. Some temperate places like New York, Massachusetts, Chinaand Japan will miss a week or more of outdoor days. Otherwise, the picture looks even more tragic. Illinois it will lose more than a month of outdoor days by the 2080s as summers become unbearably hot. Texas he will miss a month and a half for the same reason.
However, it is the countries with some of the most vulnerable populations that will suffer the most (as scientists have warned). of Nigeria Summers will become even hotter and longer, cutting almost two months of outdoor days. India he will miss almost two and a half months.
It doesn’t have to be that way. Even if the world doesn’t manage to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050 — but still does by 2070 — the situation will improve dramatically. Both Nigeria and India will lose only one month of outdoor days and the northernmost regions retain some of their additional outdoor days.
Risk assessment
The MIT tool is a related application of a field of study known as climate scenario analysis, a branch of strategic planning that seeks to understand how climate change will affect different regions and demographics. It’s not a new field, but as advances in computing power have fueled more sophisticated climate models, it’s become more widely applicable than before.
A number of startups are using this relatively newfound predictive ability to help shape an uncertain future.
Many startups in the space are focused on addressing this uncertainty for investors, lenders and insurers. Intelligence of Jupiter, Cervestand One concern All are focused on these markets, providing clients with dashboards and data feeds that they can tailor to regions or even assets of interest. The startups also determine flood, fire and drought risk and will deliver reports detailing the risk to assets and supply chains. They can also promote regulatory disclosures, highlighting relevant climate risks.
Investors and insurers are concerned enough about how climate change will affect assets and supply chains that these startups have attracted some real cash. Jupiter Intelligence has raised $97 million, according to PitchBook, while Cervest has raised $43 million and One Concern $152 million.
While large financial institutions are an obvious customer base for climate forecasting companies, other markets exposed to the outdoors also need solutions.
ClimateAI it targets agriculture, including agribusinesses, lenders and food and drink companies, which have seen droughts, floods and storms decimate crops. As a result, water risk assessment is a key feature of ClimateAI’s forecasts, although it also provides other weather and climate data. The startup has raised $37 million so far, per PitchBook.
Reasonable weather works in markets that are a little closer to home for most of us. It provides insurance for people embarking on outdoor events and activities, from live concerts to camping and golf. It works with campgrounds, golf courses, live event operators and more, allowing them to give customers the ability to insure their way out against bad weather. It’s an approach that landed the startup $22 million in funding, according to PitchBook.
As more businesses and consumers realize how climate change affects their lives, their demand for certainty will create a wealth of new markets that will give these startups and their peers ample opportunity to expand. Climate scenario analysis, once confined to academic labs and insurance companies, appears poised to enter the mainstream.
