It’s been two decades since I developed the first driverless motorcycle, the Ghostrider, as part of the DARPA Grand Challenge, an event widely regarded as the dawn of autonomous vehicles. That was in 2004, and in 2008 we used a modified Prius to deliver a pizza in San Francisco without a human driver — the first driverless car to navigate public roads.
With such rapid advances, at the time, the consensus was that there would be an autonomous car on every road within the next 10 years. Yet somehow, we are still years away from realizing that dream.
A lot of progress has been made since then, and 2024 – the Ghostrider’s 20th anniversary – will be another big year for autonomous vehicles, especially for off-road industries.
Lessons learned along the way
Eight years ago, my company, Otto, developed an 18-wheeler that completed the first autonomous commercial delivery, carrying 50,000 cans of Budweiser from Fort Collins, Colorado to Colorado Springs, a distance of 135 miles. After this successful delivery, we expected to scale quickly. But we soon discovered that freeway driving introduced a new set of consequences far more serious than a robotaxi blocking an intersection in San Francisco. (Note to San Franciscans: Please stop coning the robots.)
The off-road capabilities
Safety remains the primary metric for autonomous vehicle development, yet there needs to be industry consensus on how to adequately measure the safety of a robotic or human driver.
One environment in which the dream of autonomous vehicles has come true is off-road, where conditions are often hazardous and jobs tend to fall into what academics call “the three Ds”: dangerous, boring and difficult. Robots can outperform human-driven vehicles in performance, speed and safety. After all, a man away is a man who cannot be injured. For commercial operations, there is another compelling reason to deploy autonomous vehicles under these conditions: increased profits.
Trucks like Quickly‘s can be found in environments ranging from wet jungles to arctic tundra. Robots don’t complain about heat, humidity or cold. It’s never too late? and are more efficient overall. For years, companies such as ASI, Caterpillar and Komatsu have developed autonomous solutions in industries such as agriculture, construction and mining, and have found that more efficient robot operations often reduce the environmental impact of these sectors as well.
The road ahead for Tesla
No discussion of self-driving can ignore Tesla. Like Tesla, Pronto’s camera-based technology uses cameras and artificial intelligence to sense and interpret a robot car’s environment, just as a human driver would. I firmly believe that this is the right approach and that in 2024, Tesla will complete the autonomous cross-country road trip it has been planning since 2016, making it the second company to drive from coast to coast without human intervention.
I also believe that Tesla’s technology will continue to advance. One particular pain point I’m waiting for Tesla to announce is what I’ll call “FSD Supercharge”: Leave your car in a queue where it waits, then transfer to the next available charger, where someone plugs and unplugs your vehicle and returns you fully charged. The Pronto trucks are capable of this, and if Tesla wants to do it, I’m happy to offer some time for Pronto engineering to do it.
Security remains a concern
Safety remains the primary metric for autonomous vehicle development, yet there needs to be industry consensus on how to adequately measure the safety of a robotic or human driver.
Companies assess safety using different methodologies, such as miles per critical intervention (MPCI). This includes a human safety driver riding along to take over when the AV encounters unclear situations. The company then tries to simulate whether a hazardous incident would have occurred without human intervention.
These simulations, however, need to be improved for real-world driving. Since models cannot perfectly predict the behavior of a self-driving car, road tests remain essential. However, this test yields subjective safety ratings across companies based on internal measurements.
To increase transparency, the California DMV records collisions of autonomous vehicles. However, not all incidents are reported and reporting is often incomplete. Companies make individual calls on what constitutes relevant “interference”. As a result, policymakers need more definitive safety data to inform regulations and licensing for widespread deployment. Progress continues through continuous testing focused on capacity building. But expect back-up drivers to remain custodians of the technology until autonomous systems can robustly demonstrate safety.
To recap, 2024 is the year of the robot. This technology is no longer in demo mode, but is being put into operation, adding value and driving us into the future.
