In the most unexpected tech news of the year, billionaire and AI evangelist Sam Altman has been ousted from the CEO role at OpenAI by the company’s board after an apparent vote of no confidence. His exact wording in a statement issued this afternoon: “Altman’s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he has not been consistently candid in his communications with the board, impeding his ability to exercise his responsibilities”.
What the hell is going on at the most entertaining company in the world?! Here are some completely speculative theories that have appeared to us and others on the web.
1. Did Altman bypass the board on a major deal?
Based on board language and the way these giant tech companies operate, this is the dominant theory floating around right now. “Not consistently honest” is a very diplomatic way of saying that Altman lied.
It’s possible that Altman—and possibly OpenAI Chairman Greg Brockman, who stepped down as chairman at the same time and then resigned—wanted to make a bold move that he knew the board wouldn’t like. It is not uncommon for these offerings to be made quietly in smoke (or vapor) filled rooms and then presented as fait accomplibut if it was controversial enough and the board found out about these maneuvers, it could be fuel for a ouster.
But what kind of deal would be big and risky enough to summarily fire the company’s CEO and celebrity? The man was on the scene two weeks ago. I just talked to him! What could have happened since then?
Few would be shocked if Microsoft, which is deeply, deeply embedded in OpenAI as an investor and customer, is a factor here. Could Altman have been working with—or against—OpenAI’s patron in secret? If Altman wanted to kill the golden goose by going independent, that could have triggered the board’s fiduciary or otherwise statutory duty. On the other hand, if some other deal were negotiated, such as an acquisition or a deeper and more exclusive integration, it could also have caused hair loss on the board, either because of the idea itself or because of exclusion.
But if Microsoft was as shocked as the rest of us, as one report says, could hardly be the kind of high-stakes conspiracy some seem to be hoping for. But one has to assume that Microsoft would say so either way. Even if they were working with Altman on some kind of secret project, they can honestly say they were surprised by his firing. (And they “We remain committed to our partnership.”)
2. Do they disagree on long-term strategy?
Despite being the hottest tech company in the world right now and everyone talking about ChatGPT, OpenAI isn’t exactly a good business. He’s shoveling money into the bakery as fast as he can, serving up an admittedly fantastically expensive product at bargain prices.
This is all well and good for a year or two, but at some point this strategy changes from a growth hack to an existential obligation. Could Altman and the board have irreconcilable differences about where that point lies?
That doesn’t seem all that likely. The company is very deliberately pursuing this very publicly, confidently and on a long-term basis. Altman and the board seem to be in sync on this, at least for now.
3. The numbers don’t add up?
On the other hand, OpenAI could still lose more money than what Altman admitted or predicted? It seems impossible, but the cost of running this business is unprecedented, and indeed neither is the business itself.
Or what if, again this is pure speculation, Altman is secretly pursuing an internal project, perhaps at considerable cost, against the advice of the board and without the necessary safeguards that presumably should accompany such an investigation? It sounds a little wild, but firing your CEO like that is also a little wild.
Some sort of major mismatch in the finance department could be grounds for dismissal, but it’s hard to imagine what Altman could keep from the board and CTO that would be so damned.
There is also the possibility that Altman made personal investments in a way that the board disagreed with. With OpenAI poised to reign supreme in the field, it would certainly be in a position of power. One would think that, as an ideologically driven individual already wealthy beyond belief and the head of the world’s leading artificial intelligence company, Altman would have been above and beyond the call of duty to make this kind of side deal, or at least this control over it. and to them. near him he would prevent them. But one can never be sure.
4. Could it be a major security or privacy incident?
The idea that the company faced a major, perhaps pervasive, security issue is bolstered by the fact that Microsoft reportedly suspended the use of ChatGPT internally a few days ago. OpenAI then stopped allowing new registrations. If there was a serious security problem with its biggest product and Altman downgraded it, that would obviously create mistrust on the board.
There is also the potential for misuse at scale with the sheer volume of personal data traveling through OpenAI’s APIs and services.
Against that theory is the fact that CTO Mira Murati was just elevated to interim CEO in Altman’s place. It seems unlikely that anything related to security would go through the CEO and not the CTO, or that the two would be at odds to the point where one could be fired like that and the other traded in to clean up the mess. As the board’s announcement notes, Murati is responsible for product and security, among other things. Any major snafu in that department would reflect on her as well as Altman.
5. Maybe a difference of AI ethics or philosophy?
Altman is a proud techno-optimist and often speaks fondly of the potential of AGI, or artificial general intelligence, a theoretical software system that achieves human intelligence and agility.
The board’s statement includes features that “OpenAI was purposefully built to advance our mission: to ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity” and that new leadership was needed. It’s possible that Sam’s zeal for AGI, even in the absence of a secret project or deal, led to a major rift between him and the council.
It’s clear to all that Altman has taken the company in a much more corporate direction than its roots, changing its legal status and aggressively pursuing enterprise and consumer applications. That doesn’t sound very much like the “mission” the board wants to advance. Again, that shift didn’t happen today, and it certainly doesn’t seem like a reasonable reason to abruptly fire the CEO and a few others on a beautiful fall Friday afternoon.
6. What about intellectual property and legal liability?
Altman told me at OpenAI’s Dev Day earlier this month that the company doesn’t want to run into copyright issues using (as I had asked) pirated book datasets. But a lot of research I’ve read contradicts this, as does almost every AI data scientist I talk to. It is extremely difficult to imagine that OpenAI built GPT-3 with the copyrighted book database (as it appears to be the case), but not GPT-4 or later models. (I was going to write this next week, so thanks to the OpenAI board for eating my lunch.)
If you were on the board and faced with mounting accusations that your product was built on a data set that includes thousands or millions of copyrighted works — and your CEO had systematically downplayed the potential liability there — how would you feel? I would feel very hurt.
But then again, if copyright liability was the reason, it seems unlikely that the council would promote CTO. Apparently, OpenAI’s Chief Science Officer Ilya Sutskever would also be aware and is still on the board.
7. Did CTO Mira Murati stage a coup?
Probably not — it looks cool, and what CTO wants to be a CEO anyway? Mira, reply to my email!
8. Was it a “personal matter”?
When someone is fired in haste, it’s not unusual that there has been some sort of unprofessional behavior in the workplace. Some CEOs get a pass on things like having children with direct reports, but not all.
Altman also has three brothers, and his younger sister Annie has publicly accused him of abuse. We have no way of evaluating these claims, which are private matters.
However, our reading of the board’s language for Altman’s firing is that it was not a legal or personal problem that prompted the action, but a professional or business one.
We probably won’t know the full truth about this for a long time, as the characters in the drama are likely to be NDA’s up. According to various whispers and leaks, an all-out meeting about the situation this afternoon produced no revelations beyond simple assurances that the company is fine and that they will soon have a new CEO. Expect to hear a lot of rumors before we hear the real thing.
