The Vision Pro, Apple’s first mixed reality headset, is undeniably impressive from a technical standpoint. It reflects a carefully considered, thoughtful (albeit expensive) approach to AR/VR, while its operating system — visionOS — offers genuine innovations in the fields of inputs and interactions.
But apps make or break the hardware, no matter how compelling the core experience is. And that’s where the Vision Pro seems to struggle.
At launch, around 600 apps were developed specifically for Vision Pro. Certainly, this is no small feat. But that initial library is a tiny fraction of the apps available for Apple’s other platforms, and — more importantly — contains glaring omissions like Netflix, YouTube, and Spotify.
Now, apps don’t need to be developed natively for Vision Pro. the headset is compatible with iPadOS and iOS apps. However, existing applications do not take advantage of Vision Pro’s more powerful, immersive capabilities, and developers can opt out of Vision Pro compatibility at will.
In a recent overview Of the 500 consumers, 81% said they were concerned that the absence of apps from major developers would undermine the Vision Pro content experience. Of those who said they had no plans to buy a Vision Pro this year, 39% cited a lack of interesting content and apps to use as the main reason.
Image Credits: apple
The paucity of apps is partly to blame for the plummeting funding for AR, VR and “metaverse” software startups.
Investments around these topics – AR, VR and metauniverse – hit a multi-year low in 2023, according on Crunchbase, powered by falls steeply sales of AR and VR headsets. After peaking in 2022 at ~$6B in funding across ~600 deals, the AR, VR and metaverse market has fallen to $2B in just 200 rounds.
Can Apple lead a turnaround? Some VCs believe so — and are putting their money where their mouth is.
Brad Harrison, founder and managing partner at Scout Ventures, an early-stage VC firm, recently invested in Taqtile, a Seattle-based company that works with enterprise clients to create AR-augmented job training programs. Although Taqtile is hardware agnostic, it is a partner in Apple’s enterprise program, and Taqtile’s platform, Manifest, works with Vision Pro.
“While the Vision Pro is a generational and expensive product, being on the Apple platform gives it an amazing distribution network for both sales and support through Apple Stores,” Harrison told TechCrunch in an email interview . “I think the fact that a user can immediately derive value because they’re inside Apple [ecosystem] is the greatest possible opportunity for adoption and real inclusion in the workplace.”
Indeed, the workplace – not the average consumer’s home – may be where the Vision Pro ends up carving out a niche.
In a note to analysts this week (via Apple Insider), Morgan Stanley stated that Vision Pro is “ripe for business adoption”, particularly use cases such as virtual simulations, digital showrooms, virtual distance learning marketing and “remote break/fix in the field”. Writing in the note that the business opportunity “could become much larger than currently anticipated,” Morgan Stanley predicts that Apple’s headphone business will grow “conservatively” revenue of up to $4 billion annually after four years .
Apple certainly knows enterprise applications, this month integrating Vision Pro into Apple’s device management process to allow IT teams to manage headsets the same way they’re used to managing iPhones, iPads, watches and Macs. My colleague Ron Miller reports that Vision Pro will soon gain enterprise-friendly features such as single sign-on, identity management, and security, sweetening the pot for companies considering widespread deployment.
“We believe we are finally at an inflection point where hardware availability, ease of use, integration into existing platforms and . . . Demand will drive the growth of real AR-based businesses,” Harrison continued. “Scout has been very positive about AR/VR adoption because of the confluence of accessible and affordable hardware combined with artificial intelligence that presents a huge opportunity to improve worker efficiency. . . We are finally seeing real customer demand [across] multi-purpose scenarios for training, maintenance and education’.
Image Credits: apple
Charlie Ill, chief investment officer at Asia Pacific-focused VC fund Investible, agrees with that assessment. In 2019, Investible is supported JigSpace, an interactive 3D presentation platform for creating AR demos and product stories. JigSpace came to Vision Pro last week — a decision that wasn’t wholeheartedly supported.
“After multiple false starts with [extended reality]we believe this time is different,” Ill told TechCrunch. “Near-eye imaging and spatial video technology have moved into more widespread adoption. A first-generation device might not be a huge commercial success, but it could solidify Apple’s position as the next generation of hardware platforms on which developer ecosystems can thrive. . . Embedded in Apple’s DNA is connecting developers around new products to offer the consumer an infinite choice of applications. And over time, we believe Vision Pro’s use cases and relevance to consumers will become more apparent.”
This writer didn’t necessarily expect critical comments about Vision Pro from VCs whose portfolios are closely tied to it. But I it was surprised by just how bullish they looked on headsets — and on AR, VR and metaverse technology more broadly.
Me, I’m not so sure I’m swayed by the rosier views — some analysts expect that Apple will sell nearly half a million Vision Pro units this year. But buy-in from the business isn’t an unreasonable bet, given the track record of AR/VR headsets.
Microsoft has finally turned the HoloLens — which costs the same as the Vision Pro, coincidentally — to the business, chasing a mammoth contract with the US military. Years ago, Google followed the same playbook with Google Glass, moving away from the consumer version to bring the technology to a decidedly more corporate audience.
It’s day one, of course — the Vision Pro launched last week. And it’s hard to know what his future might hold. But Ill, for one, has a lot of faith in Apple — and the broader AR, VR, and metaverse.
“As early-stage VCs, we’re in the business of making bold bets on founders who think and build on the cutting edge,” he said. “Early investment is essential for a healthy innovation ecosystem, and we have great confidence in the future of spatial computing.”
